NEW COUNTRIES -PART 2
MAXIMILIANO HERRERA HUMAN RIGHTS LINKS
INTRODUCTION This list shows the possibility of some INDEPENDENT countries to join or to be annexed into another country. It shows a short term possibility (up to 10 years) and a long term possibility (in the future). The long term possibility includes the short term one: it means it is the combination of the st% and the lt%, so the lt% is always at least as high as the st%. Keep in mind this is my point of view. It is result of my study of these countries. The rank does NOT reflect in any way any preference or bias of the editor toward the status of the country. There are five ways for a country to disappear in the future: 1-to join another country and make a union with it under the same conditions, in most of the cases with a new country name. The most famous and last case of it was the reunification of Germany. 2-to be integrated (or annexed) into another country. In this case the country which is disappearing becomes a province, or region or autonomous territory of the country which has integrated it. In most of the cases, the country which integrated the other one keeps its original name. The were many cases of it just after the second world war and the colonial era. 3-to be split into new independent countries. 4-to be conquered by another country. The last attempt was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. The last successful case was the invasion of Timor Leste (which has just recovered its independence) by Indonesia. 5-to disappear for natural causes, like the raise of the level of the ocean or another natural disaster. This page is based on political studies and only includes the first two cases. For the independence movements, which could lead to the third case, you can see their chances of independence in the main New Countries list. Since I guess (and hope) that international community will not allow anymore an invasion of a sovereign country, i will not include in this document the possibility of the disappearance of a country caused by the invasion of another country. In the list you will find the name of the country which can disappear, the name of the country which will be unified to or integrated into, the short term possibilities, the long term possibilities and a letter which represents the case of a possible unification (U) or an integration (A for annexation).
Last update: 07/11/12
ST%=Short Term Possibilities LT%=Long Term Possibilities W=way of integration (U Unification, A Annexation, S Split into different countries).
COUNTRY COUNTRY ST% LT% W ANTIGUA AND BARB. CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 15 U BARBADOS CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 15 U DOMINICA CARIBBEAN UNION* 2 20 U GRENADA CARIBBEAN UNION* 2 20 U SAINT KITTS AND N.CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 10 U SAINT VICENT /GR. CARIBBEAN UNION* 2 25 U SAINT LUCIA CARIBBEAN UNION* 2 25 U TRINIDAD AND TOB. CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 10 U JAMAICA CARIBBEAN UNION* 1 5 U BELIZE GUATEMALA 1 2 A ERITREA ETHIOPIA 1 2 A COMOROS G.CO.+ANJOUAN+MOHELI 10 30 S GAMBIA SENEGAL 1 20 U LESOTHO SOUTH AFRICA 1 20 A SWAZILAND SOUTH AFRICA 1 5 A BRUNEI MALAYSIA 1 20 + A SINGAPORE MALAYSIA 1 1 A BHUTAN INDIA 1 10 A MALDIVES INDIA 1 10 + A NORTH KOREA SOUTH KOREA 1 75 - U TAIWAN CHINA 2 50 + A TUVALU KIRIBATI 1 40 + A MICRONESIA YAP+TRUK+HALL 1 15 S KIRIBATI GILBERT+PHOENIX+EAST. 1 10 + S NAURU AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND 1 10 A SPAIN ALL PROVINCES 1 2 S ANDORRA SPAIN** 1 25 A BELARUS RUSSIA 10 35 A LIECHTENSTEIN SWITZERLAND 1 20 A MOLDOVA ROMANIA/RUSSIA*** 2 30 A MONACO FRANCE 2 40 A BELGIUM FLANDERS+WALLONIA****10 + 40 + S UNITED KINGDOM ENGLAND+SCOTLAND+WALES1 20 S SAN MARINO ITALY 1 25 A VATICAN CITY ITALY 1 40 A BOSNIA HERZEGOVINASERBIA+CROATIA 1 10 S MACEDONIA GREE./SERB./BULG/ALB 1 2 A CYPRUS GREECE/TURKEY 2 25 A UNITED ARAB EMIR. 7 COUNTRIES-EMIRATES 1 15 S KAZAKHSTAN RUSSIA 2 20 A * The Caribbean Union is a fledgling project of integration of some caribbean countries. ** The LT% also includes the integration to Spain or to an eventual independent Catalonia. *** There are some chances that Moldova might be split in two parts: the Transdniestria region which could join Russia and the romanian speaking Moldova which could join Romania. **** There are chances in the case of a split between Flanders and Wallonia, that the German small minority will seek an integration to Germany or follow one of the two new countries (likely the Flanders). Note:Belgium is also listed amongst the countries with a chance to disappear. The difference in having a secession of Flanders from Belgium or a split in two countries where the French speaking part (Wallonia) will have a different name is mainly in the denomination of the latest. Therefore the country is listed in both lists with the same chance of short and long term independence.