NEW COUNTRIES -PART 2
             

                             MAXIMILIANO HERRERA HUMAN RIGHTS LINKS

Maximiliano Herrera's Human Rights Site
The Home Page
Electoral Calendar
It is an electoral calendar that includes general, presidential, legislative, gubernatorial, regional, municipal, local council  elections, referenda and party conventions dates. Updated weekly.
Electoral Democracies
It ranks all the independent countries in three categories: Electoral Democracy, Pseudo Democracy and Dictatorship according to their electoral system. It also includes a list of the countries without elections.
Freedom in the World
It ranks all the independent countries according to their political freedoms and civil rights.

It also includes the website Freedom in the Territories which shows the same ranking for the related territories and non-independent regions.
World Rank
It contains a list of all independent countries in the world ranked according to
their HDI (Human Development Index) or living standard.
It means incomes, political situation, health system, social situation,etc....

The site also includes a link to World Rank in the Territories which includes the same statistics of living standard in the related non-independent territories.
A World in Trouble
This site shows the perception of the risk of a coup or a new conflict for every independent country. This perception is ranked in: HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW, VERY LOW and NONE.
Return to New Countries
Extreme Temperatures Around the World
This site has also been created by Maximiliano Herrera. It contains the extreme temperatures recorded in hundreds of different localities around the world.		 
 
                                                    INTRODUCTION


This list shows the possibility of some INDEPENDENT countries to join or to be
annexed into another country.
It shows a short term possibility (up to 10 years) and a long term possibility (in the future).
The long term possibility includes the short term one: it means it is the
combination of the st% and the lt%, so the lt% is always at least as high as the st%.
Keep in mind this is my point of view. It is result of my study of these countries.
The rank does NOT reflect in any way any preference or bias of the editor
toward the status of the country.
There are five ways for a country to disappear in the future:
1-to join another country and make a union with it under the same conditions,
in most of the cases with a new country name.
The most famous and last case of it was the reunification of Germany.
2-to be integrated (or annexed) into another country. In this case the
country which is disappearing becomes a province, or region or autonomous territory
of the country which has integrated it.
In most of the cases, the country which integrated the other one keeps its original name.
The were many cases of it just after the second world war and the colonial era.
3-to be split into new independent countries.
4-to be conquered by another country. The last attempt was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.
The last successful case was the invasion of Timor Leste (which has just recovered
its independence) by Indonesia.
5-to disappear for natural causes, like the raise of the level of the ocean or
another natural disaster.

This page is based on political studies and only includes the first two cases.
For the independence movements, which could lead to the third case,
you can see their chances of independence in the main New Countries list.
Since I guess (and hope) that international community will not allow anymore an
invasion of a sovereign country, i will not include in this document the possibility
of the disappearance of a country caused by the invasion of another country.

In the list you will find the name of the country which can disappear,
the name of the country which will be unified to or integrated into,
the short term possibilities, the long term possibilities and a letter
which represents the case of a possible unification (U) or an integration (A for annexation).

Last update: 07/11/12

ST%=Short Term Possibilities LT%=Long Term Possibilities W=way of integration (U Unification, A Annexation, S Split into different countries). 


 

COUNTRY           COUNTRY              ST%   LT%   W

ANTIGUA AND BARB. CARIBBEAN UNION*      1    15    U
BARBADOS          CARIBBEAN UNION*      1    15    U
DOMINICA          CARIBBEAN UNION*      2    20    U
GRENADA           CARIBBEAN UNION*      2    20    U
SAINT KITTS AND N.CARIBBEAN UNION*      1    10    U
SAINT VICENT /GR. CARIBBEAN UNION*      2    25    U
SAINT LUCIA       CARIBBEAN UNION*      2    25    U
TRINIDAD AND TOB. CARIBBEAN UNION*      1    10    U
JAMAICA           CARIBBEAN UNION*      1     5    U
BELIZE            GUATEMALA             1     2    A
ERITREA           ETHIOPIA              1     2    A
COMOROS           G.CO.+ANJOUAN+MOHELI 10    30    S
GAMBIA            SENEGAL               1    20    U
LESOTHO           SOUTH AFRICA          1    20    A
SWAZILAND         SOUTH AFRICA          1     5    A
BRUNEI            MALAYSIA              1    20 +  A
SINGAPORE         MALAYSIA              1     1    A
BHUTAN            INDIA                 1    10    A
MALDIVES          INDIA                 1    10 +  A
NORTH KOREA       SOUTH KOREA           1    75 -  U
TAIWAN            CHINA                 2    50 +  A
TUVALU            KIRIBATI              1    40 +  A
MICRONESIA        YAP+TRUK+HALL         1    15    S
KIRIBATI          GILBERT+PHOENIX+EAST. 1    10 +  S
NAURU             AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND 1    10    A
SPAIN             ALL PROVINCES         1     2    S 
ANDORRA           SPAIN**               1    25    A
BELARUS           RUSSIA               10    35    A
LIECHTENSTEIN     SWITZERLAND           1    20    A
MOLDOVA           ROMANIA/RUSSIA***     2    30    A
MONACO            FRANCE                2    40    A
BELGIUM           FLANDERS+WALLONIA****10 +  40 +  S
UNITED KINGDOM    ENGLAND+SCOTLAND+WALES1    20    S
SAN MARINO        ITALY                 1    25    A
VATICAN CITY      ITALY                 1    40    A
BOSNIA HERZEGOVINASERBIA+CROATIA        1    10    S
MACEDONIA         GREE./SERB./BULG/ALB  1     2    A
CYPRUS            GREECE/TURKEY         2    25    A
UNITED ARAB EMIR. 7 COUNTRIES-EMIRATES  1    15    S
KAZAKHSTAN        RUSSIA                2    20    A



* The Caribbean Union is a fledgling project of integration of some
caribbean countries.

** The LT% also includes the integration to Spain
or to an eventual independent Catalonia.

*** There are some chances that Moldova
might  be split in two parts:
the Transdniestria region which could join Russia
and the romanian speaking Moldova which could
join Romania.

**** There are chances in the case of a split between
Flanders and Wallonia,
that the German small minority will seek an integration to Germany or follow
one of the two new countries (likely the Flanders).
Note:Belgium is also listed amongst the countries with a chance to disappear. The difference in having
a secession of Flanders from Belgium
or a split in two countries where the French speaking part (Wallonia) will have a different name is mainly
in the denomination of the latest.
Therefore the country is listed in both lists with the same chance of short and long term independence.