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                                 MAXIMILIANO HERRERA HUMAN RIGHTS LINKS

Maximiliano Herrera's Human Rights Site
The Home Page
Electoral Calendar
It is an electoral calendar that includes general, presidential, legislative, gubernatorial, regional, municipal, local council  elections, referenda and party conventions dates. Updated weekly.
Electoral Democracies
It ranks all the independent countries in three categories: Electoral Democracy, Pseudo Democracy and Dictatorship according to their electoral system. It also includes a list of the countries without elections.
Freedom in the World
It ranks all the independent countries according to their political freedoms and civil rights.

It also includes the website Freedom in the Territories which shows the same ranking for the related territories and non-independent regions.

World Rank
It contains a list of all independent countries in the world ranked according to
their HDI (Human Development Index) or living standard.
It means incomes, political situation, health system, social situation,etc....

The site also includes a link to World Rank in the Territories which includes the same statistics of living standard in the related non-independent territories.

A World in Trouble
This site shows the perception of the risk of a coup or a new conflict for every independent country. This perception is ranked in: HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW, VERY LOW and NONE.
 
Extreme Temperatures Around the World
This site has also been created by Maximiliano Herrera. It contains the extreme temperatures recorded in hundreds of different localities around the world.
RELATED LINKS

The Constitution: some links to separatist movements sites

New Country Project contains a list of Micro-nations: small territories with some independentist projects.


List of active autonomist and secessionist movements is a Wikipedia document with links.



INTRODUCTION


New Countries shows the possibility of some territories being converted into independent countries.
It is made by two lists: the first shows a short term possibility to become independent
(up to 10 years) and a long term possibility (in the future).
The long term possibility includes the short term one:  it means it is the combination of the st% and the lt%, so the lt% is always at least as high as the st%.
The second list shows the possibility of some independent countries to join or to be annexed into another country.
It shows a short term possibility (up to 10 years) and a long term possibility (in the future)also with 
the short and long term possibilities.
There are five ways for a country to disappear in the future:
1-to join another country and make a union with it under the same conditions,in most of the cases with a new country name.
The most famous and last case of it was the reunification of Germany.
2-to be integrated (or annexed) into another country. In this case the country which is disappearing becomes a province, or region or autonomous territory
of the country which has integrated it.
In most of the cases, the country which integrated the other one keeps its original name.
The were many cases of it just after the second world war and the colonial era.
3-to be split into new independent countries.
4-to be conquered by another country. The last attempt was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.
The last successful case was the invasion of Timor Leste (which has just recovered
its independence) by Indonesia.
5-to disappear for natural causes, like the raise of the level of the ocean or another natural disaster.
Since I guess (and hope) that international community will not allow anymore an invasion of a sovereign country,
i will not include in this document the possibility of the disappearance of a country caused by the invasion of another country.
In that list you will find the name of the country which can disappear, the name of the country which will be unified to or integrated into,
the short term possibilities, the long term possibilities and a letter which represents the case of a possible unification (U) or an integration (A for annexation).
Keep in mind this is my point of view. It is the result of my study of these territories.
The rank does NOT reflect in any way any preference or bias of the editor toward the status of the territory.

Last update 20/09/14:

  • Scotland (UK): After the referendum, the chances of independence in the short term obviously take a plunge.
  • Kurdistan (Iraq): The chances of a incoming independence of the Iraqi Kurdistan are increasing dramatically, together with the chances of the partition of Iraq.
  • Crimea and Donbas (Ukraine): There is a big split in Ukraine between the pro-European west and the pro-Russian East.
  • Northern Thailand (Thailand): The terrible injustices with the military willing to overthrown the democratically elected government, is causing frustration and some separatist feelings in the North and Northeast.
  • Gagauzia (Moldova): The last referendums show a clear split between Moldova and Gagauzia political and social views, which could increase the chances of the independence of this territory.
  • South Yemen (Yemen): The guerrilla activity in support of independence is increasing and the power vacuum in the central government is filled by more separatist sentiment in the South.
  • Catalonia (Spain): The chances of independence are increasing, the sentiment amongst the young generation is mainly in favour of independence.
  • Puerto Rico (United States): The chances of independence are much lower now after the result of the last referendum ,which chosen option by the majority of voters, was the incorporation into the United States as 51st State.
  • Jersey (United Kingdom) : The disagreement about tax system is leading towards threats of separatism by Jersey authorities.
  • Sprska Republic (Bosnia and Herzegovina): Chances are increasing for a independence of this territory which could eventually lead into a future integration with Serbia.
  • Los Llanos (Bolivia) is a project, which includes the provinces of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Pando, to seek autonomy and possibly independence from Bolivia.

ST%=Short Term Possibilities LT%=Long Term Possibilities


  

1-INDEPENDENCE LIST


TERRITORY       CURRENT SOVEREIGNTY   ST%   LT%
 

PALESTINE \       ISRAEL               55    90
JUDEA             ISRAEL                2     5
NORTHERN CYPRUS   CYPRUS               30    45 
KOSOVO *          SERBIA/UNITED NATION 80    98 +
VOJVODINA         SERBIA                1    15 -
SANDZAK (         SERBIA/MONTENEGRO     1    10
KOTOR BAY         MONTENEGRO            1     2
ULCINJ            MONTENEGRO            1     2
SRPSKA REPUBLIC / BOSNIA AND HERZEGOV. 35 +  40 +
WESTERN BOSNIA    BOSNIA AND HERZEGOV.  1     2
BRCKO             BOSNIA AND HERZEGOV.  1     2
NORTHERN EPIRUS   ALBANIA               1 -   5 - 
ILLYRIA REPUBLIC  ALBANIA/MACEDONIA     1 -   2 -
ISTRIA            CROATIA               1    10 -
DALMATIA          CROATIA               1    10 -
KRAJINA           CROATIA               1    10 -
SZEKLER (EAST TR.)ROMANIA               1    15
SUDETENLAND       CZECH REPUBLIC        1     2
MORAVIA/SILESIA   CZECH REPUBLIC        1     2
RUSYN             SLOVAKIA              1     2
KASHUBIA          POLAND                1     1
SLASKA            POLAND                1     1
SAMOGITIA         LITHUANIA             1     2
LIVONIA           LATVIA                1     2
LATGALIA          LATVIA                1     2
SAMILAND/LAPPLAND NOR.-SWED.-RUS.-FIN.  1     2
SVALBARD          NORWAY                1     5
SCANIA            SWEDEN                1     1
TORNEDALIA        FINLAND/SWEDEN        1     1
ALAND @           FINLAND               1    10 
FAEROE ISLANDS    DENMARK               5    35 +
GREENLAND         DENMARK              30 +  55 +
BORNHOLM ISLAND   DENMARK               1     2
BAVARIA           GERMANY               1     2
CHAGOS ISLANDS    UNITED KINGDOM        5 -  45 -
SAINT HELENA      UNITED KINGDOM        1    10
ANGUILLA          UNITED KINGDOM        1    35
MONTSERRAT        UNITED KINGDOM        1    25
BERMUDA           UNITED KINGDOM        1    35
UK VIRGIN ISLANDS UNITED KINGDOM        1    30
CAYMAN ISLANDS    UNITED KINGDOM        1    30
TURKS AND CAICOS**UNITED KINGDOM        5    40 +
ISLE OF MAN       UNITED KINGDOM        1    30
CHANNEL ISLANDS   UNITED KINGDOM        2 +  30
JERSEY            UNITED KINGDOM        5 +  25
GUERNSEY          UNITED KINGDOM        2    10
WALES             UNITED KINGDOM        2 +  30 +
SCOTLAND          UNITED KINGDOM       10 -  40 -
NORTHERN IRELAND )UNITED KINGDOM        5    40 + 
YORKSHIRE         UNITED KINGDOM        1     2
ORKNEY            UNITED KINGDOM        1     5
SHETLAND          UNITED KINGDOM        1     5
CORNWALL          UNITED KINGDOM        1     5
GIBRALTAR ***     UNITED KINGDOM        2    30
FALKLAND ISL.**** UNITED KINGDOM        1    15
SEALAND           UNITED KINGDOM        1     1
ARUBA             NETHERLANDS           5    35
CURACAO           NETHERLANDS           5    35
SINT MAARTEN      NETHERLANDS           5    30
SINT EUSTATIUS    NETHERLANDS           2    20
BONAIRE           NETHERLANDS           2    15
SABA              NETHERLANDS           2    15
FRYSLAN           NETHERLANDS           1     5
GENEVA            SWITZERLAND           1     1
JURA              SWITZERLAND           1     1
TICINO            SWITZERLAND           1     1
FLANDERS ,        BELGIUM              10 +  40 +
MARTINIQUE        FRANCE                2    40
GUADELOUPE        FRANCE                2    40
SAINT BARTHELEMY ~FRANCE                2    25
SAINT MARTIN ~    FRANCE                2    25
FRENCH GUIANA     FRANCE                2    40
NEW CALEDONIA     FRANCE               30    65 +
FRENCH POLYNESIA  FRANCE               20    50 +
MARQUESAS ISL.    FRANCE                5    30
WALLIS AND FUTUNA FRANCE               10 +  50 +
ST PIERRE AND MIQ.FRANCE                1    20
REUNION           FRANCE                2    30
MAYOTTE *****     FRANCE                2 -  30    
BRITTANY          FRANCE                1     5
CORSICA           FRANCE                1    10
ALSACE            FRANCE                1     5
SAVOY             FRANCE                1     5
OCCITANIA         FRANCE                1     2
LORRAINE          FRANCE                1     2
BOURGOGNE         FRANCE                1     2
NICE              FRANCE                1     2
BASQUE COUNTRY    SPAIN/FRANCE          5    40 -  
NAVARRA ******    SPAIN                 1     5
CATALONIA ]       SPAIN                20 +  50 + 
GALICIA           SPAIN                 1    10 
CANARY ISLANDS    SPAIN                 1    10 
ANDALUCIA         SPAIN                 1     5
VALENCIA $        SPAIN                 1     5 
ARAGON            SPAIN                 1     1
ASTURIAS          SPAIN                 1     1
CANTABRIA         SPAIN                 1     1
LEON              SPAIN                 1     1
BALEARES $        SPAIN                 1     5
AZORES            PORTUGAL              1     5
MADEIRA           PORTUGAL              1    10
ROMANDIE          SWITZERLAND           1     1
PADANIA           ITALY                 1     2
SARDINIA          ITALY                 1     5
SICILY            ITALY                 1     5
AUSONIA           ITALY                 1     1
AOSTA VALLEY      ITALY                 1     5
SOUTH TYROL       ITALY                 1     5
LOMBARDIA         ITALY                 1     1
FRIULI-VENETO     ITALY                 1     1
CAMPIONE -        ITALY                 1     5
LIGURIA           ITALY                 1     1
GREEK MACEDONIA   GREECE                1     5
CHAMERIA          GREECE                1     1
CRETE             GREECE                1     1
MOUNT ATHOS       GREECE                1     1
TRANSNISTRIA #    MOLDOVA              30    45 -
GAGAUZIA          MOLDOVA              25 +  35 + 
CRIMEA  #         UKRAINE              65 +  85 +
DONBAS  #         UKRAINE              55 +  75 +
CARPATH. RUTHENIA=UKRAINE               1    10
WESTERN UKRAINE . UKRAINE               1    10
BUKOVINA `        UKRAINE               1    10
CHECHNYA          RUSSIA               10 -  55
DAGESTAN          RUSSIA                5    40
TATARSTAN         RUSSIA                5    40 +
UDMURTIA          RUSSIA                1    10
BASHKORTOSTAN     RUSSIA                2    20 +
MARY EL           RUSSIA                2    20
CHUVASHIA         RUSSIA                1    20
MORDOVIA          RUSSIA                1    20
INGUSHETIA        RUSSIA                5    35 +
BALKARIA REP.     RUSSIA                2    15
KABARDIN REP.     RUSSIA                2    15
KARACHAI REP.     RUSSIA                2    15
CHERKESSIA REP.   RUSSIA                2    15
NORTHERN OSSETIA  RUSSIA                2    20 +
ADYGEYA           RUSSIA                1    15
KALININGRAD       RUSSIA                1    20
KALMIKYA REP.     RUSSIA                1    10
INGRIA {          RUSSIA                1    10
KARELIA {         RUSSIA                1    10
KOMI              RUSSIA                1    10
TUVA REPUBLIC     RUSSIA                1    20
ALTAI             RUSSIA                1     5
BURYATIA          RUSSIA                1     5
KHAKASSIA         RUSSIA                1     5
EASTERN SIBERIA   RUSSIA                2    20
YAKUTIA (SAKHA)   RUSSIA                1    20
CHUKOTSKA         RUSSIA                1    20
SAKHALIN          RUSSIA                1    10
PRIMOSKI          RUSSIA                1    10
KAMCHATKA         RUSSIA                1    10
MAGADAN           RUSSIA                1    10
NAGORNO KARABAKH  AZERBAIJAN           40 +  50 
NAKHICHEVAN       AZERBAIJAN           10    35 
TALYSH-MUGHAN     AZERBAIJAN            1     5
LEZGISTAN         AZERBAIJAN/RUSSIA     1     2
ABKHAZIA #        GEORGIA              40 +  55 +
SOUTH OSSETIA #   GEORGIA              35 +  55 +
ADZHARIA          GEORGIA               5    25
MINGRELIA         GEORGIA               1    10
JAVAKHETI         GEORGIA               1 +  10 +
SOUTH. AZERBAIJAN IRAN                  1    20
WEST AZERBAIJAN   IRAN                  1    15
KHUZESTAN         IRAN                  1    15
SISTAN-BALUCHISTAN IRAN                 1    15
GORNO BADAKHSAN   TAJIKISTAN            2    25
KARAKALPAKSTAN    UZBEKISTAN            2    25
SOKH ******       UZBEKISTAN            2    15
HATAY             TURKEY                1     5
KURDISTAN         IRAQ/TURKEY/SYRIA/IRAN10 + 50 + 
JABAL AD DURUZ    SYRIA                 1     5
ALAWITE STATE     SYRIA                 2 +   5 +
MOUNT LEBANON     LEBANON               1    15
IRAQI KURDISTAN   IRAQ                 50 +  65 + 
SHIIS STATE       IRAQ                 25 +  50 +
TURKMENELI        IRAQ                  2 +  10
SALAHUDDIN        IRAQ                  2 +  10
DIYALA            IRAQ                  2 +   5
ISLAMIC STATE     IRAQ/SYRIA            5    20
HAWAR ISLANDS     BAHRAIN               1     5
DUBAI             UNITED ARAB EMIRATES  1    15
SHARJAH           UNITED ARAB EMIRATES  1    25
MUSCAT            OMAN                  1    15
DHOFAR            OMAN                  1    15
SOUTH YEMEN       YEMEN                35 +  50 +
SOCOTRA           YEMEN                 1    20
ZAYDI SHIA        YEMEN                 2    15
HADHRAMAUT        YEMEN                 1     5
OKINAWA-RYUKUS IS.JAPAN                 1    10
HOKKAIDO          JAPAN                 1     2
AINU REPUBLIC     JAPAN                 1     1
CHEJU-DO          SOUTH KOREA           1     2
TAMIL STATE       SRI LANKA             2 -  20
HAZARAJAT         AFGHANISTAN           2    15
KANDAHAR          AFGHANISTAN           2    15
NANGAHAR          AFGHANISTAN           1    10
SOUTH TURKESTAN   AFGHANISTAN           1    15
HERAT             AFGHANISTAN           1    15
BADAKHSHAN        AFGHANISTAN           1    15
PASHTOONISTAN     AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN  2    25
BALOCHISTAN       PAKISTAN              5 -  30
SINDHUDESH        PAKISTAN              5 -  25
BALAWARISTAN      PAKISTAN              5 -  30
HUNZA-BROOSHAL    PAKISTAN              5 -  25
WAZIRISTAN        PAKISTAN              5 -  25
JINNAHPUR         PAKISTAN              1     2 
GILGIT-BALTISTAN  PAKISTAN              1     5
KASHMIR           INDIA/PAKISTAN        5    35
ASSAM ^           INDIA                 2    25
SIKKIM <          INDIA                 2    20 -
MEGHALAYA ^       INDIA                 1    15
MANIPUR ^         INDIA                 2    20
PUNJAB (KHALISTAN)INDIA                 2    10
MIZORAM           INDIA                 2    10 
TAMIL NADU        INDIA                 2    10
TRIPURA ^         INDIA                 2 -  10
ARUNACHAL PRADESH INDIA                 1    10
WEST BENGAL ^     INDIA                 1    10
KERALA            INDIA                 1    10
ANDAMAN-NICOBAR I.INDIA                 1    20
LAKSHADWEEP ISL.  INDIA                 1    10
BODOLAND          INDIA                 1     5
GOA               INDIA                 1     5
GORKHALAND        INDIA                 1     5
NAGALAND ^        INDIA/MYANMAR         2 -  20 -
ZOGAM             INDIA/BANGL./MYANMAR  1     5
BANGABHUMI        BANGLADESH            2    20
CHAKMA(CHIT.HILLS)BANGLADESH            2    20
SUVADIVES         MALDIVES              1    15
MAHADHESI (TERAI) NEPAL                 2 +  15 +
TAIWAN >          CHINA                 2    50
TIBET             CHINA                 1    40
XINJIANG (UIGHUR) CHINA                 1    40
INNER MONGOLIA    CHINA                 1    20
MANCHURIA         CHINA                 1    10
GUANGXI           CHINA                 1    10
YUNNAN            CHINA                 1    10
HONG KONG         CHINA                 1    20
MACAU             CHINA                 1    15
LADAKH            CHINA/PAKISTAN        1     5
HMONG STATE       LAOS/THAILAND/VIETNAM 1     5
SOUTH VIETNAM     VIETNAM               1     2
KAMPUCHEA KROM    VIETNAM               1     1
TAY NGUYEN (DEGAR)VIETNAM               1     2
KAYIN (KAREN)STATEMYANMAR               2 -  25
MON STATE         MYANMAR               2    10
SHAN STATE        MYANMAR               2 -  30 -  
WA STATE          MYANMAR               2 -  30 
CHIN STATE        MYANMAR               2    25
KACHIN STATE      MYANMAR               5    30
RAKHINE (ARAKAN)  MYANMAR               2 -  20
KOKANG            MYANMAR               2 -  15
PANGWAUM          MYANMAR               1    10
NAMPAN            MYANMAR               1    10
KUKILAND          MYANMAR               1    10
ZOMI              MYANMAR               1    10
SOUTH MUSLIM THAI.THAILAND              1    15
ESSAN ?           THAILAND              2 +  15 +
LANNA REPUBLIC ?  THAILAND              2 +  10 +
SARAWAK           MALAYSIA              1    25
SABAH             MALAYSIA              1    25
SULU SULTANATE    PHILIPPINES/MALAYSIA  1     5
MINDANAO ;        PHILIPPINES           5    35
CORDILLERA        PHILIPPINES           1    15
ACEH              INDONESIA             5 -  40 -
WEST PAPUA        INDONESIA            15 +  50 
WEST TIMOR        INDONESIA             2    25
RIAU              INDONESIA             1    15
AMBON (SO.MALUKU) INDONESIA             2    25
EAST KALIMANTAN   INDONESIA             2    20
SULAWESI          INDONESIA             2    20
BOUGAINVILLE      PAPUA NEW GUINEA     50    60 
MILNE BAY         PAPUA NEW GUINEA      2 +  15 +
HELA              PAPUA NEW GUINEA      2 +  25 +
BISMARK ISLANDS   PAPUA NEW GUINEA      1    15
MALAITA           SOLOMON ISLANDS       5 -  35  
RENNELL & BELLONA SOLOMON ISLANDS       2    20
OTONG JAVA        SOLOMON ISLANDS       2    25
ROTUMA ISLAND     FIJI                  1    25
POHNPEI           MICRONESIA            2    25
YAP ISLANDS       MICRONESIA            2    25 +
TRUK ISLANDS      MICRONESIA            2    20
HALL ISLANDS      MICRONESIA            2    20
E.SANTO (VEMERANA)VANUATU               2    25
MALAKULA          VANUATU               2    20
TANNA (TAFEA)     VANUATU               2    20
NA GRIAMEL        VANUATU               1    10
BANABA            KIRIBATI              2    20
PHOENIX ISLANDS   KIRIBATI              2    20
EASTERN ISLANDS   KIRIBATI              2    20
RALIK ISLANDS     MARSHALL ISLANDS      1    15
CHRISTMAS ISLAND  AUSTRALIA             1    10
NORFOLK ISLAND    AUSTRALIA             1    15
COCOS ISLAND      AUSTRALIA             1     5
WESTERN AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA             1     1
NIUE              NEW ZEALAND           1    25
COOK ISLANDS      NEW ZEALAND           2    40
TOKELAU           NEW ZEALAND           5 -  40
CHATHAM ISLANDS   NEW ZEALAND           1     2
SOUTH ISLAND      NEW ZEALAND           1     2
QUEBEC            CANADA               25    45
NEWFOUNDLAND      CANADA                1     5
ALBERTA           CANADA                1     5 
WESTERN CANADA    CANADA                1     5
BRITISH COLUMBIA  CANADA                1     5
SASKATCHEWAN      CANADA                1     2
CAPE BRETON ISL.  CANADA                1     2
PUERTO RICO       UNITED STATES         2 -  25 -
NORTHERN MARIANAS ! UNITED STATES      15 -  50
AMERICAN SAMOA |  UNITED STATES        10    40 +
GUAM !            UNITED STATES         5    40
US VIRGIN ISLANDS UNITED STATES         1    25
TEXAS             UNITED STATES         1     2
CALIFORNIA        UNITED STATES         1     2
NEW MEXICO        UNITED STATES         1     2
ARIZONA           UNITED STATES         1     2
FLORIDA           UNITED STATES         1     2
HAWAII            UNITED STATES         1     5
ALASKA            UNITED STATES         1    15
VERMONT           UNITED STATES         1     1
MINNESOTA         UNITED STATES         1     1
NEW ENGLAND       UNITED STATES         1     1
SOUTH CAROLINA    UNITED STATES         1     1
SOUTHERN STATES   UNITED STATES         1     2
NEW YORK STATE    UNITED STATES         1     1
SIOUX LAKOTA      UNITED STATES         1     2
IROQUOIS (HAUDENOSAUNEE)U.STATES        1     2
OJIBWAY           UNITED STATES         1     2
NAVAJO (NA-DENE)  UNITED STATES         1     2
GULLAH/GEECHEE    UNITED STATES         1     2
LONG ISLAND       UNITED STATES         1     1 
KEY WEST          UNITED STATES         1     1
CASCADIA          UNITED STATES         1     1
RIO GRANDE :      UNITED STATES/MEXICO  1     2
NUEVO LEON        MEXICO                1     5
CHIAPAS           MEXICO                1    15
YUCATAN           MEXICO                1    10
SOUTHERN STATES : MEXICO                1     5
BAJA CALIFORNIA : MEXICO                1     5
ATLANTIC REGIONS  NICAGARUA             1    10
GUANACASTE        COSTA RICA            1     5
KUNA              PANAMA                1     2
ARTIBONITE        HAITI                 1     2
BARBUDA           ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA   1     5
GRENADINES        ST VINCENT AND THE GR.1    10
NEVIS             ST KITTS AND NEVIS   20 -  50
TOBAGO            TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO   1    10
RAIZAL (SAN ANDRES) COLOMBIA            1    15
GUAJIRA [         COLOMBIA              1     5
ZULIA             VENEZUELA             1     2
SOUTHERN BRAZIL   BRAZIL                1    15
SAO PAULO STATE   BRAZIL                1     5
RIO GRANDE        BRAZIL                1     2
NORTHEAST BRAZIL  BRAZIL                1     2
GUAYAQUIL }       ECUADOR               1    10
GUAYAS }          ECUADOR               1    10
LORETO            PERU                  1     5
ANDINE REGIONS    PERU                  5    20
AREQUIPA          PERU                  1     5 
LOS LLANOS        BOLIVIA              15    30  
SANTA CRUZ        BOLIVIA              20    35  
TARIJA            BOLIVIA              10    20  
BENI              BOLIVIA               2    15
PANDO             BOLIVIA               2    15
EASTER ISLAND     CHILE                10 +  35 +
MAPUCHE NATION    CHILE/ARGENTINA       1     2
PATAGONIA         ARGENTINA             1     5
WESTERN SAHARA    MOROCCO              40    75
RIF REPUBLIC      MOROCCO               1     5
KABYLIA(BERBER)   ALGERIA               1    10
CYRENAICA         LIBYA                25 +  35 +
FEZZAN            LIBYA                 5    15
ABABDA            EGYPT                 1     2
CASAMANCE         SENEGAL               5 -  30
ZANZIBAR          TANZANIA              5 -  40 
PEMBA             TANZANIA              5 -  35 
SOMALILAND        SOMALIA              50    65
PUNTLAND          SOMALIA              25 -  40 -
SOUTHWEST.SOMALIA SOMALIA              10 -  20 -
MAAKHIR           SOMALIA               5    15
GALMUDUG          SOMALIA               5    15
JUBALAND          SOMALIA               5    15
OROMO STATE       ETHIOPIA              1    20 -
TIGRAY STATE      ETHIOPIA              1    20
GAMBELLA          ETHIOPIA              2    20 
OGADEN REGION     ETHIOPIA              2 -  20 
NORTH EASTERN FR. KENYA                 1    10
COAST PROVINCE    KENYA                 2 +  20 +
BUGANDA           UGANDA                1     5
BLUE NILE &       SUDAN                 5    20
ABYEI &           SUDAN                 1 -  10 -
NUBA MOUNTAINS &  SUDAN                 1    10
SOUTHERN KORDOFAN&SUDAN                 2 +  15 
KASSALA           SUDAN                 2    15
BEJA              SUDAN                 1    10
DARFUR            SUDAN                35 +  50 +
EASTERN SUDAN     SUDAN                10 +  30 +
NUERLAND          SOUTH SUDAN           5    20
LADO              SUDAN/UGANDA          1 -  10 - 
LOGONE REGION     CHAD                  1    10
AZAWAD (TUAREG)   MALI/NIGER           15 +  30 +
AGADEZ REGION     NIGER                 1     2
ANJOUAN (NZWANI)  COMOROS              25    40
MOHELI (MWALI)    COMOROS              10    30
ALDABRA ISLANDS   SEYCHELLES            1    15
AMBAZONIA (SOUTH C.)CAMEROON           10 +  40 +
BAKASSI PENINSULA CAMEROON              5 +  25 +
BIAFRA            NIGERIA               2    25
OGONI             NIGERIA               2    25
HAUSA             NIGERIA               2    10
NIGER DELTA       NIGERIA               5 +  30 +
YORUBA            NIGERIA/BENIN         1     5
DAGBON            GHANA                 2    20
NORTHERN REGIONS  COTE D'IVOIRE         2 -  20
KATANGA           CONGO KINSHASA        2 +  10
KASSAI            CONGO KINSHASA        1    10
BUNDU DIA KONGO   CONGO KINSHASA        1    10
CENTRAL KONGO     CONGO KINSHASA        1     2
REPUBLIC OF KIVU  CONGO KINSHASA        1     2
REP.OF EQUATEUR   CONGO KINSHASA        1     2
REP. OF BOYOMA    CONGO KINSHASA        1     2
GREAT KASAI       CONGO KINSHASA        1     2
BATEKE (TIO)      CONGO KINSHASA        1     2
BUKAVU            CONGO KINSHASA        1     2
BAS CONGO         CONGO KINSHASA        1     2
BATWA             RWANDA                1     2
PRINCIPE          SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE 1    10
BIOKO             EQUATORIAL GUINEA     5    35  
CABINDA           ANGOLA                5 -  30 -
REP. OF NDONGO    ANGOLA                1     2
UK. LUNDA TCHOKWE ANGOLA                1     2
REP. OF BENGUELA  ANGOLA                1     2
CAPRIVI           NAMIBIA               5    30
REHOBOTH BASTERS  NAMIBIA               1     5
BAROTSELAND       ZAMBIA                1     5
MATABELELAND (MTHWAKAZI) ZIMBABWE       2    10
ORANIA            SOUTH AFRICA          1    10
WESTERN CAPE      SOUTH AFRICA          1    10
XHOSALAND         SOUTH AFRICA          1     5
KWAZULU/NATAL     SOUTH AFRICA          1     5
VHAVENDA          SOUTH AFRICA          1     2
ABA THEMBU        SOUTH AFRICA          1     1
TRANSKEI          SOUTH AFRICA          1     2
CISKEI            SOUTH AFRICA          1     1
MATABELELAND      SOUTH AFRICA          1     1
BOPHUTHATSWANA    SOUTH AFRICA          1     1
GAZANKULU         SOUTH AFRICA          1     1
KANGWANE          SOUTH AFRICA          1     1
KWANDEBELE        SOUTH AFRICA          1     1
QWAQWA            SOUTH AFRICA          1     1
LEBOWA            SOUTH AFRICA          1     1
THEMBULAND        SOUTH AFRICA          1     5
AFRIKANERS        SOUTH AFRICA          1     5
RODRIGUES ISLAND  MAURITIUS             2    20
AGALEGA ISLAND    MAURITIUS             2    20
TOLIARA           MADAGASCAR            1     2





* There is also the chance of a future merge between Kosovo and Albania.

** A proposal for Turks and Caicos has also been becoming a canadian
 oversea province.(it will probably remains a dream).

*** There is also a chance in the long term for Gibraltar to be 
integrated into Spain.

**** There is also a chance in the long term for the Falkland to be 
integrated into Argentina.

***** There is also the chance of an integration of Mayotte in the 
Comoros (little one for now).

****** There is also the chance (considerable) for Sokh to be integrated into Kyrgyzstan

$ There is also a remote chance for Valencia and the Baleares Islands
to join Catalonia as a joint independent country, as for Navarra to 
join the Basque Region to form a united independent country.

< There is also a proposal to integrate Sikkim and the southern 
Bhutan to Nepal.

> Although Taiwan is a de facto independent country, recognized 
by some countries and it is listed, even by the editor himself,
as an  independent country, these statistics are meant to give
a rate of its chances
to be recognized by all the countries, including China, and
integrated into the United Nations.

| There is also a slim chance for American Samoa to be 
integrated into independent Samoa (former Western Samoa).

! There is also a project of integration of Guam and the Northern
  Marianas into an independent country "Marianas"  

? There is also the chance for Lanna Republic (Northwestern Thailand) and Essan Republic (Northeastern
Thailand) to form a Northern Thailand together.
There is also a slim chance for Essan to join Laos instead.

\ There are chances of different solutions like two independent 
countries: West Bank and Gaza or for Palestine (or West Bank only)
to be integrated into Jordan in a federation.

/ There is also a strong chance for the Sprska Republic to be 
integrated into Serbia.

: Rio Grande project includes the states of Nuevo Leon, Coahuila and 
Tamaulipas and under some projects, parts of Texas and New Mexico in 
USA.Southern States includes Chiapas, Yucatan, Tabasco,
Campeche and Quintana Roo

; There is also a consistent chance for Mindanao , in case of independence, to
become independent without a part of it where Muslims are not
the majority.

^ Inside these indian states, there are also internal independence 
movements like the ones of Karbi Anglong, Khasi, Achik, Meitei,
Reang, Bodo, Kuki, Kamatapur and Rabha.

- There is also the chance for Campione to be integrated into 
Switerland.

# There are also big chances for these territories to be integrated into 
the Russian Federation.

= There is also a chance for the Transcarpatia region to be integrated into Hungary.

` There is also a chance for Bukovina to be integrated into Romania.

. There is also a chance for the Western Ukraine (Volyn, Lviv , Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil and Rivne) to be integrated into Poland.

@ There is also the chance of Aland Island to get integrated into 
Sweden.

, Belgium is also listed amongst the countries with a chance to disappear. The difference in having a secession
of Flanders from Belgium or a split in two countries where the French speaking part (Wallonia) will
have a different name is mainly in the denomination of the latest. Therefore the country is listed in 
both lists with the same chance of short and long term independence.

~ There is also the chance of Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy to 
become independent together with Guadeloupe in a unique country.

" Marquesas Islands ma choose to stay with France if the rest of French Polynesia breaks away,
(good chance), or to be independent alone or within French Polynesia (in both cases
it is a smaller chance).

& There is also a chance for Southern Kordofan (low/medium chances), South Blue Nile (medium chances),
Nuba Mountains (medium/high chances) and for Abyei (high chances) to be integrated into
the future independent country of South Sudan.

[ There is also a slim chance for Guajira to be come part of Venezuela

] There is also a much smaller chance of a Great Catalunya which includes parts currently in France

( There is also a chance for Sandzak to be integrated into Bosnia and Herzegovina

) There is also a chance for Northern Ireland to be integrated into Ireland

{ There are also chances for Ingria and Karelia to form an independent country together or to join Finland

} There is also the chance for Guayaquil and Guayas to set a joint independent movement



2-INTEGRATION LIST


COUNTRY           COUNTRY              ST%   LT%   W

ANTIGUA AND BARB. CARIBBEAN UNION*      1    15    U
BARBADOS          CARIBBEAN UNION*      1    15    U
DOMINICA          CARIBBEAN UNION*      2    20    U
GRENADA           CARIBBEAN UNION*      2    20    U
SAINT KITTS AND N.CARIBBEAN UNION*      1    10    U
SAINT VICENT /GR. CARIBBEAN UNION*      2    25    U
SAINT LUCIA       CARIBBEAN UNION*      2    25    U
TRINIDAD AND TOB. CARIBBEAN UNION*      1    10    U
JAMAICA           CARIBBEAN UNION*      1     5    U
BELIZE            GUATEMALA             1     2    A
ERITREA           ETHIOPIA              1     2    A
COMOROS           G.CO.+ANJOUAN+MOHELI 10    30    S
GAMBIA            SENEGAL               1    20    U
LESOTHO           SOUTH AFRICA          1    20    A
SWAZILAND         SOUTH AFRICA          1     5    A
BRUNEI            MALAYSIA              1    20 +  A
SINGAPORE         MALAYSIA              1     1    A
BHUTAN            INDIA                 1    10    A
MALDIVES          INDIA                 1    10 +  A
NORTH KOREA       SOUTH KOREA           1    75 -  U
TAIWAN            CHINA                 2    50 +  A
TUVALU            KIRIBATI              1    40 +  A
MICRONESIA        YAP+TRUK+HALL         1    15    S
KIRIBATI          GILBERT+PHOENIX+EAST. 1    10 +  S
NAURU             AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND 1    10    A
SPAIN             ALL PROVINCES         1     2    S 
ANDORRA           SPAIN**               1    25    A
BELARUS           RUSSIA               10    35    A
LIECHTENSTEIN     SWITZERLAND           1    20    A
MOLDOVA           ROMANIA/RUSSIA***     2    30    A
MONACO            FRANCE                2    40    A
BELGIUM           FLANDERS+WALLONIA****10 +  40 +  S
UNITED KINGDOM    ENGLAND+SCOTLAND+WALES1    20    S
SAN MARINO        ITALY                 1    25    A
VATICAN CITY      ITALY                 1    40    A
BOSNIA HERZEGOVINASERBIA+CROATIA        1    10    S
MACEDONIA         GREE./SERB./BULG/ALB  1     2    A
CYPRUS            GREECE/TURKEY         2    25    A
SYRIA         DRUZE+ALAWITE+KURD+SUNNI 25 +  40 +  S
IRAQ              SHII+KURD+SUNNI      45 +  65 +  S
SAUDI ARABIA      UP TO 5 COUNTRIES     2    25    S
UNITED ARAB EMIR. 7 COUNTRIES-EMIRATES  1    15    S
KAZAKHSTAN        RUSSIA                2    20    A



* The Caribbean Union is a fledgling project of integration of some
caribbean countries.

** The LT% also includes the integration to Spain
or to an eventual independent Catalonia.

*** There are some chances that Moldova
might  be split in two parts:
the Transdniestria region which could join Russia
and the romanian speaking Moldova which could
join Romania.

**** There are chances in the case of a split between
Flanders and Wallonia,
that the German small minority will seek an integration to Germany or follow
one of the two new countries (likely the Flanders).
Note:Belgium is also listed amongst the countries with a chance to disappear. The difference in having
a secession of Flanders from Belgium
or a split in two countries where the French speaking part (Wallonia) will have a different name is mainly
in the denomination of the latest.
Therefore the country is listed in both lists with the same chance of short and long term independence.